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We have heard rumors of Twins catcher Joe Mauer , the 2009 AL MVP,  going to the dance together with the Twins for the next 10 years.   Mauer’s 2009 season is one for the record books, leading the American league in Batting Average , On Base Percentage, Slugging,  OPS, and runs created.

Did the Mets rush oufielder Fernando Martinez to majors last season? His minor league career has shown flashes of great potential, but the ability to stay healthy has been his biggest drawback.

The Marcel projection system is either the most basic forecasting system, or the most advanced forecasting system. The Marcel 2010 projections can be found here.

With the acquisition of Roy Halladay, the trade of Cliff Lee, the free agent signing of Placido Polanco, you would wonder how the Phillies might stack up. Based On Shawn Smith’s Chone projection system, Phillies season is best summed up with two words, second place.

Miguel Cairo was one of the first ever Devil Ray players. We never knew he would  have such a useful  career as a super substitute utility player. There is even a projection system named after him. Here is where you can find the 2010 Cairo projections.

Lastly, pitchers and catchers in seven days.

When will the baseball season get here already?  The early days of January go so slow before spring finally gets here.

Keith Law weighs in on his organizational rankings. The Rangers, the Red Sox, and Rays are top 3. Where as, its no surprise the Astros and the Whitesox are in the bottom three, but the Cardinals?

In other farm system news, MLB top 50

The McTruth Finally

I can remember that miracle rookie season of 1988, Mark McGwire hitting home runs at a mammoth pace.  Its hard to recall someone coming on the scene and being a slugger like we were witnessing that year.  With his Bash Brother counterpart Jose Canseco, these guys were the talk of baseball.

We have heard the Jose Canseco claims that McGwire participated in steriods as they were slugging home runs together in Oakland. I don’t really believe McGwire saying he did not discuss steroids with any other players, as I believe it was Jose Canseco that introduced McGwire to the steroid lifestyle.

Sure, McGwire had been blessed with the ability to crush a baseball. However, steroids do help you. In the steroid era, the record setting numbers were enhanced like never before. I am puzzled why he took this long to come clean. I believe he did go on an exile, refusing to speak to reporters. Additionally, it’s hard to  believe that  reporters failed to approach him to tell his story.

As McGwire gets ready to start a job in baseball, I find it hard to believe he will not become a distraction to the St Louis Cardinals. It will be a traveling roadshow in every town he enters. Instead of the players on the field being the focus when the Cardinals come to town,  the local press will replay the steroid story.

I wonder at what point McGwire fessed up to LaRussa on the steroids. Was it after he accepted the job as the hitting coach, or is it something that McGwire wanted to get off his chest before starting his new job. In a way, he did prevent alot of the negativity that was sure to come his way, as the last image we have of him is his claiming to congress that ‘We are not here to talk about the past’.

I am sure as a man, its freeing to get this out of his system and to turn the page. We’ll see how this plays out, but he sure has a lot more explaining to do.

Over the Christmas holidays, the N.Y. Mets unwrapped their Bay City Rollers gift.  When one looks back at Jason Bay’s resume, you have to like his numbers.

  • HR: 2nd in AL 36
  • TOB :13th in AL with 245
  • TB 15th in AL with 285
  • OPS: 8th in AL: 921

On the defensive side of the ball, Jason Bay’s defensive number show he had started to decline , and continues to be an issue .

The sabermetric chronicles on Inside the Book : with Mike Silva vs the Tangotiger

TrueBlue LA has Better Know a Stat OPS+

Bay City Rollers

It has certainly been a curious case, for  free agent Jason Bay, in his first time on the free agent market.   He had been offered big money by the Red Sox to lock him up with a franchise that is certain to be in the mix for post season play for many years to come. But, it seems for Jason Bay its not about the money. For some reason, he does not want to take residence in the New England area.   The Red Sox have moved on as well, signing Mike Cameron as a suitable short term replacement.

In Jason Bay, you are talking about a player who was not the all world prospect coming up through the minor leagues. However, a light went on in the end of his minor league career which led to his recall with the Padres before suffering a beamed ball just a few at bats into his Major League career. The following season Jason Bay and and Oliver Perez were the young major league ready talent sent to the Pirates for Brian Giles.  In Pittsburgh, he became a productive player and an all-star for the Pirates. But, there was not enough talent around with Bay, and it was clear he wanted out to play for a contender. He got his wish when he was traded to the Red Sox in the last minute Manny Ramirez trade.

Its not clear what type of fit Bay is looking for. His agent is not doing him any favors as he could have signed near his hometown in Seattle, but negotiations dragged on and the Mariners looked elsewhere and acquired Milton Bradley.

Will he go back to Mets? This is  a team that traded him away early into his minor league career. He is clearly one of the best bats left in the market, with Matt Holiday the only other comparable player. From what has transpired this off-season with Bay,  he comes off as sort of a player with some baggage. In the end, he will go with the money. That either takes him to Mets or the Cardinals (if Holiday talks break down). Forget Boston, that train has left the station.

First look at Rays 2009

A year after making it to the World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays end up in third place the AL East division with an 84-78 record. The Rays batters scored 754 runs in 2009, a number that was 20 less runs than the previous season.  However, the alarming number was the 803 runs given up, as compared to 671 runs given up in 2008.

Pitching Statistics
Name IP K/9 WHIP ERA SO QS HR BIPA DIPS GB FB
SHIELDS 219.2 5.36 1.32 4.14 167 26 29 .299 4.02 308 402
GARZA 203.0 8.38 1.26 3.95 189 19 25 .266 4.19 232 349
KAZMIR 147.1 7.15 1.42 4.89 173 14 16 .290 4.31 160 304
PRICE 128.1 7.15 1.35 4.42 102 10 17 .265 4.61 170 226
NIEMANN 180.2 6.23 1.35 3.94 125 13 17 .287 4.15 240 334

Jeff Niemann finally came on the scene and got his chance to pitch in the Rays starting rotation after battling injuries throughout his minor league career. After getting off to a shaky start in his first few outings, the Rays stuck by him and he lived up to his #1 pick status. By far, Niemann was the surprise of the season for the Rays in the pitching department. In comparison, the Rays David Price had somewhat of a disappointing season.  With a lot of expectations thrown his way,  his performance as a starter in 2009  looked shaky at times. Kazmir had another year of injuries, but managed to string together a few good starts after returning from the injury. The Rays were able to find a trading partner in the Angels. If you saw him pitching in the playoffs, you realize the Rays made the right decision. He simply is not the pitcher he once was. His numbers show that. He is just too inconsistent. After his playoff dominance in 2008, Garza was simply not that pitcher in 2009. He pitched well enough to post decent numbers and peripherals, and is still one of their best pitchers. James Shields simply did not pitch as well as he did the previous season, when he established himself as the Rays#1 Ace. pitcher  His strikeout numbers were down, and gave more runs than was expcted, but still managed the teams top spot in quality starts.

Playing For Next Year

With just a weekend left in the regular season, the teams out of the running have started their planning for next season. Earlier in the week, the Cleveland Indians let manager Eric Wedge know his services would not be needed next season.  The Indians had high expectations going into the season, but they turned into sellers trading away high profile players Mark DeRosa, Cliff Lee, and Victor Martinez for younger players.

Now, word out of San Diego is that the new ownership team is going in another direction and letting long time GM Kevin Towers go. The biggest impact Towers has had on the team throughout the season was convincing Jake Peavy to be more open minded to a trade. At the end of the day, the Padres are doing Towers a favor because its will be hard to be excited about going to the office when the team is building to compete three years from  now.

f you look at the National League East, you know the beast of the division in the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.  They have so much troubles, they can’t seem to choose among who gets the demotion to the pen when former Met Pedro Martinez joins the team.

Despite the injuries and all the failed expectations  coming out of Citi Field with the Mets, they are still just seven games under the .500 mark.  That’s quite a remarkable record considering they have been without Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado for a major portion of the season.

With the team in tact last year, they scored 84 more runs than they gave up. In 2009, they have scored 33 less runs (with 472) than they have given up (505). In comparing 2008 and 2009, they have gone from +84 to -33 in the runs scored/given up differential which is 117run difference.

Still, despite the drop off, Jerry Manuel and Omar have this team competitive. How is this possible?

They have almost no home run ability playing in Citi field where Sheffield leads team in Home runs with 10 Home runs, and are last in NL with 67.

Where is the Mets saving grace that has kept them in games despite the drop off in production?

They are 3rd in the NL in OBP with a .341 mark. They lead the national League in stolen bases, and are fourth in NL in total bases with 1443.

So despite the slugging outage this year with Mets, they are getting people on base and moving across the base paths with the small ball type of mentality.

These fill in players are doing quite the job. They certainly have not given up despite being overmatched with their bats against many of their opponents. Makes you think the Mets are bringing this mentality from the movie Animal House:

Bluto: Over? Did you say “over”? Nothing is over until we decide it is!  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
Otter: Germans?
Boon: Forget it, he’s rolling.
Bluto: And it ain’t over now. ‘Cause when the goin’ gets tough…  the tough get goin’! Who’s with me? Let’s go!

Another positive for the 2009 Mets is their defense that backs Johan Santana and company. The Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) measures the percentage of times balls in play are turned into outs by the team’s fielders, not including home runs. The Mets defense is 9th best in NL . with a .696 Also, the UZR (ultimate zone rating) measures the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined. The Mets are 4th best in the NL with a 27.1

Besides Santana, their is no starting pitcher that has stood out in a positive way. The team is 10th in the National league in ERA that puts them in the bottom tier of the league with a .432 ERA.

All things considered, this is one of the more surprising seasons gone by with the Mets. With this downturn in production, you would think they were on pace to lose 100 games. The Mets were neither buyers or sellers at the deadline.

One thing is evident, this is an array of players who has not shown to give up despite all the injuries and players playing in roles they are not accustomed to.  This is what team work is all about. Today, when Parnell takes the mound as the starting pitcher, and Murphy gets his timely hits,  take a good luck. As, they are building something here known as team chemistry, and a little bit of luck.

When I was growing up in late 1970s, if you were not a Reggie fan, you certainly were a  Jim Rice fan. Rice went on to play his entire career with the Boston Red Sox.  In little league, we would imagine we were Jim Rice and try to emulate those home run blasts.   I am not sure why it took Jim Rice this long to enter Cooperstown, but I guess his relationship with the writers played a big factor in all of this.   Sometimes how you finish your career, is how everyone remembers you by.  As he mentioned in his speech today, Jim Rice had his career batting average drop below the .300 mark his last year in the majors.  Also, had he reached the 400 home run mark, he certainly would of been in quicker as 382 just fell short. However, a career slugging average above .500 is probably what got him into Cooperstown.

As for Rickey Henderson, I remember him coming up in the late 1970s, and he was the talk in most baseball circles with the flat out blazing speed. I didn’t get to see much of Lou Brock’s  career, but Henderson and the 100 bases stolen in a season sure made him a star. Back then, you didn’t hear as much as you do today about what the ideal lead off hitter must possess. But, Henderson transformed the lead off batter position with the speed and power combination.  As we saw today in his speech, Henderson has the type of personality you’ll never probably see again. His references to people like Tom Trebelhorn, Charlie O, Billy Martin, George Steinbrenner, Dave Winfield and others shows us how long he was part of the game.

From the TBO, Maddon with the use of his number crunching data gave Aybar the rare start:

“I cannot take credit for that,” Maddon said. “This is something we do back at the office, and we really crunch numbers and do so many things. Willy came out on top versus Greinke.”

Aybar went 4-4 with the game winning hit. Madddon was key in letting Aybar know the ball that went through his legs was simply bad break, and to forget about it.  And that he Did!

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