In Jason Bay, you are talking about a player who was not the all world prospect coming up through the minor leagues. However, a light went on in the end of his minor league career which led to his recall with the Padres before suffering a beamed ball just a few at bats into his Major League career. The following season Jason Bay and and Oliver Perez were the young major league ready talent sent to the Pirates for Brian Giles.  In Pittsburgh, he became a productive player and an all-star for the Pirates. But, there was not enough talent around with Bay, and it was clear he wanted out to play for a contender. He got his wish when he was traded to the Red Sox in the last minute Manny Ramirez trade.

Its not clear what type of fit Bay is looking for. His agent is not doing him any favors as he could have signed near his hometown in Seattle, but negotiations dragged on and the Mariners looked elsewhere and acquired Milton Bradley.

Will he go back to Mets? This is  a team that traded him away early into his minor league career. He is clearly one of the best bats left in the market, with Matt Holiday the only other comparable player. From what has transpired this off-season with Bay,  he comes off as sort of a player with some baggage. In the end, he will go with the money. That either takes him to Mets or the Cardinals (if Holiday talks break down). Forget Boston, that train has left the station.

As for Rickey Henderson, I remember him coming up in the late 1970s, and he was the talk in most baseball circles with the flat out blazing speed. I didn’t get to see much of Lou Brock’s  career, but Henderson and the 100 bases stolen in a season sure made him a star. Back then, you didn’t hear as much as you do today about what the ideal lead off hitter must possess. But, Henderson transformed the lead off batter position with the speed and power combination.  As we saw today in his speech, Henderson has the type of personality you’ll never probably see again. His references to people like Tom Trebelhorn, Charlie O, Billy Martin, George Steinbrenner, Dave Winfield and others shows us how long he was part of the game.

Below is the top 10 overall finishes in MLB over the course of the 2008 season (either American League or national League results). If a player makes it to the top 10 list, its really a great accomplishment.  The fact that Albert Pujols made the top overall in 3 of 4 catgeories, and got beat out by only Chipper Jones in On Base Percentage shows that the NL MVP voters got it right.

Dustin Pedroia placed 8th in times on Base, 10th in Total Bases, but was absent on any other top 10 finishes.  The American league numbers  were way below the National League at the top  of the heap. Albert Pujols was the most impressive offensive force in 2008. The fact that he was playing somewhat hurt makes this offensive display even more of a standout.

Times on Base

1. Albert Pujols 296
2. David Wright 287
3. Nick Markakis 283
4. Lance Berkman 279
5. Grady Sizemore 279
6. Hanley Ramirez 277
7. Jose Reyes 271
8. Dustin Pedroia 270
9. Ichiro Suzuki 269
10. Chase Utley 268

Total Bases

1. Albert Pujols 342
2. Ryan Braun 338
3. David Wright 334
4. Ryan Howard 331
5. Miguel Cabrera 331
6. Josh Hamilton 331
7. Aubrey Huff 330
8. Jose Reyes 327
9. Chase Utley 325
10. Dustin Pedroia 322

Slugging

1. Albert Pujols 653
2. Ryan Ludwick 591
3. Chipper Jones 574
4. Alex Rodriguez 573
5. Carlos Quentin 571
6. Kevin Youkilis 569
7. Carlos Lee 569
8. Lance Berkman 567
9. Milton Bradley 563
10. Ryan Braun 553

On Base Percentage

1. Chipper Jones 470
2. Albert Pujols 462
3. Lance Berkman 420
4. Joe Mauer 413
5. Matt Holliday 409
6. J.D. Drew 408
7. Nick Markakis 406
8. Hanley Ramirez 400
9. Brian Giles 398
10. Manny Ramirez 398

Rocco battled back slowly from the disease that nearly ended his career. When Carl Crawford went down with a devastating injury towards the end of the season, it was fitting that Rocco was able to step in and stabilize the lineup.  Nobody expected Rocco to play this crucial a role and he showed flashes of the talent that once had him pegged as a future star.  The talent is still there, but the fact is at this point it is hard for him to play back to back games.

Just like the Atlanta Braves of 1990s, who over their run had seen alot of their homegrown players eventually change addresses as their farm system continued to pump out younger, cheaper alternatives.

The Rays and Rocco have a mutual interest in reuniting for 2009.  However, this is a business and each party will do what is in their best financial interest.  Rocco will certainly draw interest, and at this point the Rays have said they will wait and see. The Rays seem only likely to offer a minor league deal which probaly means an end to their relationship. Rocco is from the North East and and raised a Red Sox fan. His exit from the Rays is likely.   Rocco Baldelli is as good of a person as he is talented. It will be sad to see him go.

Even early on with the Rays leading the division, everyone in the media and beyond said that it was the  Red Sox who would eventually take the division crown.  This Rays put an end to that and went out and won 90s plus games. They are used to being thought of as soft based on the franchises track record.

That is the thing with the playoffs. Its a gut wrenching display of wills and desire. There will be ups and down and the teams that get to this point have heart and substance.  This weekend and tonight will be a defining moment on Rays history.

For comparisons, you could look at Bobby Cox who made it look so easy with all those back to back division crowns,  but found out it takes some luck to nail down the championships.  Or, you could look at the Cleveland Indians from a few years ago who were staked to a 3-1 lead and looked like they would take down the  Yankees.

Time will only tell how this story plays out. The Rays seem to be in a favorable position playing at home with their star pitcher in James Shields taking the hill.  The fans will be out in full force. The Heckler will be out as well.  Besides the high performing Upton and Longoria, this game might come down to those role players like Rocco Baldelli or Willy Aybar.   Or, it may be the talented Carl Crawford who puts on another hitting clinic. I can’t wait

Red Sox eighth (Runs: 3, Hits: 3):
Bay walked on four pitches. Drew homered to right on a 0-1 count, Bay scored. Lowrie flied out to left fielder Crawford. Casey pinch-hitting for Varitek. Casey struck out. Kotsay doubled to center. Crisp singled to right, Kotsay scored. Crisp was out advancing, right fielder Gross to first baseman Pena to shortstop Bartlett, Crisp out.

Red Sox NInth (Runs: 1, Hits: 2):
Howell pitching. Pedroia grounded out, third baseman Longoria to shortstop Bartlett to first baseman Pena. Ortiz struck out. Youkilis infield single to third. On Longoria’s error, Youkilis to second. Bay was intentionally walked. Drew singled to right, Youkilis scored, Bay to second.

Did I mention I named my cat Mookie?

Ron Darling is a decent announcer in the time I have listened. Both on the TBS broadcasts and on MLB.tv covering the Mets.

Note. If Kamzir gets out of the first, he usually lasts the game. He is competitive despite his youth and I expect him redeeming himself tonight.

Pena just hit the long ball. The pre-game feature on how he came over to this country as a young kid must of given him luck. Evan follows with the Bomb !

Diced !

The Rays with their backs against the wall 2-0, came back with a vengeance. It has been a coming out party on the national scene for B.J Upton as a leader and a young star.  This game was a slug fest early with the 7 playoff home runs. It had the meltdown of both bullpens in that long fifth inning.  But,  each team regrouped and went on a shutout of sorts in the late innings.

For the Rays, Dan Wheeler led the way pitching the most consecutive innings since his days in Houston. The Price was right as David Price quickly made a name for himself with his mastery of Boston batters.   The Rays got the lead off batter Dioner Navarro on base and promptly replaced him with speedy outfielder Perez.  It was the farm system delivering this win as Perez was drove in from third on a short fly ball by Upton.

The Rays have gotten themslves back in the series and have the momemntum as they head back to Boston. Let us not forget Evan Longaria who is a rookie cleanup hitter who had his bat going again. But in all, this was a complete team win and the game came down to the 24th and 25th roster spots.

Like I eluded to, Manny only hit 20 homeruns in 2007. But, how did that stack up from a rate perspective:

• Manny Ramirez : HR/PA = 3.5%
• Carlos Lee HR/PA = 4.6%

So, even though their home run numbers differed by about one percentage point.That amounted to about 12 home runs. Ramirez and Lee are about even in On Base Plus Slugging but, Manny gets on base at an elite rate of .388.

• Manny Ramirez : OPS : .881 (SLG .493, OBP .388)
• Carlos Lee : OPS .882 (SLG .528, OBP .354)

According to Ron Shandler : “the .300 hitters come from 86% contact rate and a 11% walk rate”. Lets take a look at the numbers he talks about.

• Manny Ramirez Contact Rate : 86.96
• Carlos Lee : Contact Rate : 89.95
• Manny Ramirez : BB/PA : 12.5%
• Carlos Lee : BB/PA : 7.6%
• Manny Ramirez : AVG .296
• Carlos Lee : AVG:303

Even though Manny Ramirez achieved both those thresholds, he was slightly off the .3oo batting average. Carlos Lee achieved the contact rate, but was below the walk rate and achieved the .300 BA.

According to Greener on the Other Side, Isolated Power identifies the true power hitters: “Isolated Power attempts to describe a hitter’s overall effectiveness by measuring his ability to generate extra base hits. The formula is rather simple compared to other sabermetrical statistics: Slugging % – Batting AVG.”

• Manny Ramirez: ISOP: .197
• Carlos Lee : ISOP : .225

Its quite apparent that Manny’s power is not like it once was. He is still capable for 25-28 Homers, but he has not displayed the extra base effectiveness as he once could.

Now onto the luck category. The Batting average with balls in play for a hitter is dependent on the defense the hitter is facing. What is odd, is that Manny Ramirez BABIP shows he was the luckier hitter, but the predicted OPS says that Carlos Lee’s true numbers suggests that bad defense helped his numbers look better than they really were.

• Manny Ramirez : BABIP .312
• Carlos Lee : BABIP : .289
• Manny Ramirez OPS -PrOPS : 001 (Beltran -0.025)
• Carlos Lee : OPS- PrOPS : .021

The sabermetrics primer tell us that Runs created are : ” A statistic intended to quantify a player’s contribution to runs scored, as well as a team’s expected number of runs scored. ” Bill James would simply say that Lee was greater at creating runs for his team”:

• Manny Ramirez : RC 89.2
• Carlos Lee RC : 109.5

There are also metrics to compare players contribution to his team. Greener on the Other Side says about the RC/27: “Runs created per 27 outs (RC27) estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score.”

• Manny Ramirez RC/27 : 6.53
• Carlos Lee RC/27 : 6.13

Whereas, Bill James developed a stat that measures each player’s contribution to his team’s wins, or Win Shares

• Manny Ramirez: Win Shares : 15
• Carlos Lee : Win Shares: 23

Most recently, VORP was in the news and Fire Joe Morgan tried to explain why John Heyman should be stopped.

• Manny Ramirez VORP : 26.4
• Carlos Lee : VORP: 42.5

Lastly, we take a look at the flyballs, and see that Manny is hitting more Balls on the Ground which may account for the dropoff in Home runs.

• Manny Ramirez GroundBalls:157
• Carlos Lee : Ground Balls : 222
• Manny Ramirez Fly Balls:157
• Carlos Lee: Flyballs 252
• Manny Ramirez G/F: 1.00
• Carlos Lee : G/F : 0.88

One site that is one everybody’s blogroll (including Peter Gammons) is Baseball Musings by David Pinto. His claim to fame is that during the 2001 season he was part of ESPN‘s Baseball Tonight Online. He was a moderator on the chat room that featured either Rob Dibble or Tom Candiotti answering question. His original Baseball Musings blog was one that resembled his blog today, where he covers baseball news 24/7. He has written articles for Baseball Prospectus, and now also is listed as a baseball expert at SportingNews.com .

One thing that is significant about his Baseball Musings site is David’s jump into baseball statistics. He created PMR

Pinto uses play-by-play data to determine the probability of a ball in play being converted to an out based on six parameters: Direction of hit (a vector), The type of hit (Fly, ground, line drive, bunt), How hard the ball was hit (slow, medium, hard), The park, The handedness of the pitcher, The handedness of the batter.

Also, included on his site is the day to day Batter / Pitcher database where you can get game by game performance history over a distinct period for majpr league player.

The first stop on checking what the buzz of the blogosphere, Pinto also is one of the nice guys in the baseball space. He answers emails and is one to contact to get the word out on something new in the blogosphere.