The need for speed stole only 17 bags in 2010 but has stolen between 46 and 87 bags in each of his last four minor league seasons.  Ey Jr received a lot of playing time in the second half and stole 11 bases in only 140 AB.  If given a chance, he should steal 40.

Negative HR Splits Let’s take a look at which batters have been experiencing positive and negative trends since the break in the homerun department. Jose Lopez 107 – He’s usually a big second half guy.  Be patient.

• Giants: Peguero, Ford, Escobar, Cameron, Martinez, Posey, Buress, Sanchez, Torres
• Rockies : Redding, Beimel, Street, Buchholz, Spier, LoDuca, Eldred, Phelps, Escobar, Hererra, Reynolds
• Padres: Denorfia, LeBlanc, Antonelli, Cunningham, Durango,Thatcher, Barfield, Munson, Geer, Inman, Poreda
• Dodgers: Ortiz, Wade, Monasterios, Ayala, Towers, Kuo, Hu, Ellis, Green, Barton, Paul, Belisario
• D-Backs: Webb, Vazquez, Kroenke, Rosales, Noberto, Ojeda, Ryal, Hester, Mulvey, Buckner, Allen, Gillespie, Augenstein,

It was the Cool De La article over at Fantasy Phenoms this off season that put De Rosa on my radar again. In 2009, De La Rosa owners are being rewarded with his breakout thus far giving up only 15 ER so far in 42 innings pitched. Along the way, he has more than a strikeout per inning pitched with a WHIP of 1.17.

Last night, in a dominant performance against the Pirates, it looked as if De La Rosa would once again be on the receiving end of another loss due to bad run support. He pitched 7 strong innings striking out ten with only one run given up. When he left the game, it looked like he would be in line for a fourth decision, all in the loss column. But, Brad Hawpe would have none of this and belted a home run which took De La Rosa off the hook and Rockies went on to win the game.

This goes to show you how little win and loss records really mean in evaluating pitchers. The Cy Young voters should pay a little more attention to the pitching peripherals than they do to this outdated win and loss record.

This string of bad luck of Jorge De La Rosa with his 0-3 record made me think of Anthony Young  (A.Y.), the New York Mets pitcher who holds the record of bad luck.  Young lost 27 consecutive games in which he had a decision.

Lets hope De La Rosa gets some luck from here on out and gets some decent run support. These are the type of pitchers its fun to root for.

Mr. Sterneberg has said that in 2008 the Rays are about winning and being competitive, and not about how much profit they make from the television contracts, ticket sales, or on hot dogs and hamburgers. The loyal fans of Tampa have stuck by this organization even though the reputation of the ownership makes a ton of profit for their wallets, instead of making use of all the financial resources they have at there disposal.

The Rays by sending Evan to AAA Durham will allow the franchise to gain an extra year in which Longoria would be eligible to become a free agent and cash in. But, if the Rays franchise is smart, they would realize they will have to pay Longoria anyways, sort of what was done in Colordao with Troy Tulowitzki.

The Rays are on the clock. We will judge them by what they do with this decision. We have heard the words of compete coming from there mouths. We’ll see in the next few days if there words were just that, or if there is substance behind what they say.

There is no question that the 2008 Rays are a better ball club with Evan at the hot corner!

• Elite pitcher status in Brandon Webb and Erick Bedard for $30
• Jayson Nix starter at 2B (hopefully) for Rockies $6
• Ty Wiggington qualifying at SS for $15

The Vegas win totals:
Tampa Bay 73.5
New York(AL&NL) 93.5
Chicago(NL) 87.5
Los Angeles(NL) 87.5
Baltimore 65.5
Washington 70.5

Tape Measure Hits:

Corey Hart : I know I am funnier than Alfonso Soriano

Rays Preview Roto World Style

MLB Mock Draft Software

Sleeper Prospect Kyle Mclellen

Groundball Leaders 2007

Highest Percentage of Homers off Flyballs 2007

Homer Simpson At The Bat

Wins above Replacement

One of the better blogs I came across this off-season is called Greener On the Other Side where they offer Objective Insight to Sabermetrics and Strategy In Fantasy Baseball. Brett Greenfield and I participated in a blog exchange of questions and answers. My responses to his questions appear at Greener on the Other Side. Brett’s responses to my questions appear below in bold.

1. Just like in Major League baseball, after a while you can recognize
the type of players or strategies certain GMs favor. In fantasy baseball keeper leagues, what type of patterns among other fantasy owners do you see pretty often?

Many owners fail to realize mistakes they’ve made. We all do it. For example, those who drafted or kept guys like Alex Gordon or Delmon Young last year are highly likely to keep them again this year.

An intelligent owner cuts bait on his these players and goes for the certain thing. Nobody knew Ryan Braun would be as productive as he was last year and become a first round pick this year. Sometimes it takes guys like Young and Gordon time to develop and other times they never do.

So a trend I see all too often is holding on to a player just because you thought highly of him in the year before. I also see rosters that have players in common. There is usually the owner who drafts all young players and not enough proven veterans to contend. Every team needs a Todd Helton. Other teams only take the older guys who have “slipped” to them because other owners think they are too old to draft in a “keeper league.”

Finding a happy medium usually results in success. While in a keeper league everyone needs to remember that your primary goal is to win this year not in 2010.

2. The saves and stolen bases always seem to be the hardest categories
to fill out on your fantasy roster with. Do you suggest going after the high fliers in those categories and having to pay for it, or go after with several cheaper players that get you the stats collectively?

Saves and stolen bases are the hardest to fill out. This is the case mainly because the players who provide these two categories don’t provide you with any help in other categories. Closers for example help your ERA and WHIP yet only give you that help in about a third of the innings of a starting pitcher.

Even the best closers who strike out 100 still give you a total as low as Chien-Ming Wang. I prefer landing cheaper sources of saves such as Todd Jones and Kevin Gregg. In such a volatile position I hate to use a high draft pick on a player who only provides me with 3 categories at most. Stacking up on high-end SP’s who can get you help in four categories and then drafting late closers works best in my opinion.

The same can be said for stolen bases when a large majority of your SB guys include Figgins, Pierre and Taveras. They rarely provide you with much help elsewhere.

That being said for my first two rounds in the draft I try to target players like David Wright, Carl Crawford, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Alfonso Soriano, etc.

A guy like Ryan Howard in the first round gives you zero SB and his .261 AVG is a lot more real than his .300 AVG from the year before.

In targeting SB I prefer to get an all-around player and when targeting saves I prefer to wait until rounds 17-20 and grab lesser values closers much like Al Reyes and Kevin Gregg last year.

3. It seems you always hear to spend a certain percentage of your team
on offense and certain percentage on pitching. Why is it that offense is always at a premium percentage of your overall budget when both offense and pitching both contribute to five categories?

Generally speaking, offense usually comprises a larger portion of a fantasy roster. In addition, hitters suffer far less injuries than pitchers and are more reliable because of that. Lastly, even the best pitchers like Peavy and Santana don’t provide you with 5 categories since they won’t be getting any saves. A hitter like David Wright provides above average assistance in all 5 categories.

So in rotisserie leagues, its always worth spending the big bucks on the guys who provide you with help in the most categories as possible.

4. We have seen some teams make bold moves with a player they acquired
this off-season either through trades or free agent signings. Which move in particular strikes you as a move that we can call the “Fools Gold” transaction of 2008?

The fool’s gold transaction of the 2008 offseason was the White Sox and A’s trade involving Nick Swisher and Gio Gonzalez. Last year, Gio led the minor leagues in strikeouts and sported a 3.18 ERA to go along with a 1.15 WHIP. He was blocked in Chicago by a slew of pitchers that they’ve had including Vazquez, Garland, Contreras, Buehrle, Danks and Floyd. Now moving from an extreme hitters park to a pitcher’s paradise with a great chance to log 150+ innings, expect him to be the “Fools Gold” of 2008 as Billy Beane has done it again.

5. The Houston Astros Roy Oswalt was one of the top pitchers in many
draft boards last season. Tell me why I should avoid or go after
Houston Astros Pitcher Roy Oswalt in 2008?

Roy Oswalt has seen his stats decrease over the last few years. His strikeouts have decreased at a clip of 20 per year over the last 4 seasons and his strikeout rate dropped to a career low 6.5/9. His ERA, while still at 3.18 has risen over the last three years and his WHIP was a career high last year. For those interested in Sabermetrics, Oswalt’s Component ERA was 3.72 and his DIPS ERA was 3.51, both higher than his 3.18 ERA looks on the surface. His two back to back 20-win seasons are in the past as his run support has dwindled over the last two seasons. Avoid Roy Oswalt.

the year-end leaders in the four categories (On Base Percentage, Slugging average, Times on Base, and Total Bases

The Quad takes into account both counting stats in Times on Base, and Total Bases and the rate stats in On Base Percentage, Slugging average.

The formula for Times on Base (TOB) is

• (H + BB + HBP)

The formula for Total Bases (TB) is

• (Total hits – 2b -3b – HR) + (2b x 2) + (3b x 3) + (HR x 4)

The formula for Slugging (SLG) is TB/AB or

• ((Total hits – 2b -3b – HR)+ (2b*2)+ (3b*3)+ (HR x 4) )/ AB)

The formula for On Base Percentage (OBP) is

• ((Total hits +BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)

The Results are in. It sure makes the NL MVP voting something to talk about. As Matt Holliday shows up on Quad top 10 overall in three of the four categories : Times On Base, Total Bases, and Slugging (with just missing in OBP at #15). Whereas Jimmy Rollins only shows up once in Quad top 10 overall in on Total bases (#133 in OBP, #29 Slugging, #17 Times On Base). Its hard to compare a SS to an outfielder for determining who was more valuable to their team. But, certainly Holliday was the better all around offensive force.

Times on Base

1. Rodriguez Alex 299
2. Ortiz David 297
3. Helton Todd 296
4. Wright David 296
5. Ordonez Magglio 294
6. Sizemore Grady 292
7. Pujols Albert 291
8. Suzuki Ichiro 290
9. Holliday Matt 289
10. Jeter Derek 276

Total Bases

1. Holliday Matt 386
2. Rollins Jimmy 380
3. Rodriguez Alex 376
4. Ramirez Hanley 359
5. Fielder Prince 354
6. Ordonez Magglio 354
7. Ortiz David 341
8. Granderson Curtis 338
9. Cabrera Miguel 332
10. Lee Carlos 331

Slugging

1. Rodriguez Alex 644
2. Braun Ryan 634
3. Pena Carlos 626
4. Ortiz David 621
5. Fielder Prince 617
6. Holliday Matt 606
7. Jones Chipper 604
8. Ordonez Magglio 594
9. Howard Ryan 584
10. Pujols Albert 568

On Base Percentage

1. Bonds Barry 480
2. Ortiz David 445
3. Helton Todd 434
4. Ordonez Magglio 433
5. Pujols Albert 428
6. Posada Jorge 426
7. Jones Chipper 424
8. Rodriguez Alex 422
9. Wright David 416
10. Thome Jim 410

Resources:

Baseball Databank:”The Baseball Databank (BDB) is dedicated to creating and maintaining a comprehensive record of all baseball statistical data in a form that makes them useful for researchers and product developers. This databank, once it is fully normalized and proofed, will be the standard source for those professionals creating new data products.”

select Master.nameLast,Master.NameFirst,yearid,h+bb+hbp as tob , (h-2b-3b
-hr) + (2b*2)+ (3b*3)+ (hr*4) as tb,truncate((((h+bb+hbp)/(ab+bb+hbp+sf))* 1000)
,0) as obp,truncate(((((h-2b-3b-hr)+ (2b*2)+ (3b*3)+ (hr*4))/ ab)*1000),0) as sl
g from Batting,Master where yearId = ’2007′ and Master.playerid = Batting.playe
rid ;

Now, I am not sure that the Marlins Ramirez will continue to be a better version of Jose Reyes. Some of the things on the horizon for Hanley Ramirez:

• The loss of protection in the lieneup with Miguel Cabrera now in the American League. With less good pitches thrown his way, he likely will see his power number decrease, as you might see his OBP as good or better.
• How he responds to offseason surgery will be an issue. He is not expected to be available at beginning of spring training. How he is able to prepare and be ready will not be the same.
• His defense is the middle of the pack according to PMR . With the Marlins lacking a 3B, its not out of the question down the road the team performs some defensive rel-alignment. If that means, a move to the outfield or possibly at the hot corner, we’ll have to see how this plays out. At the moment, the Marlins are choosing between a couple of second baseman for 3B
• With the loss of Willis and Cabrera over money concerns, how long is Hanley in the Marlins future? Sure, the team holds the upper hand in the cost containment of Hanley over the next few years. But, you don’t see the Marlins locking him up like the Rockies are doing with Troy Tulowitski

I think Hanley will continue to be one of the better young players in baseball. If the Marlins were smart, they would consider doing like many of the other teams have done with their young players and buy out his arbitration years. Otherwise, the Marlins become the new Montreal Expos if they have not already become them.

Tape Measure Hit of the Day:

More Love to the Tampa Rays