Manny Ramirez has been one of the true sluggers in baseball over the past decade. Carlos Lee has played most of his career in the American League, but has been on the National League the past few years (except for a cup of coffee in Arlington when he was traded away by Brewers). Lee is snatched up early in fantasy drafts mostly for his power potential. Carlos Lee usually goes anywhere from $33-$39 in many auction leagues. Ramirez is on the downside of his career from an age standpoint. Gone is his first round elite status. Manny’s 2007 season was looked as a disappointment from a power perspective, but lets look inside the numbers from a sabermetric perspective and drill down on the offense firepower comparing what Manny provided as compared to Lee in the National League.
Like I eluded to, Manny only hit 20 homeruns in 2007. But, how did that stack up from a rate perspective:
So, even though their home run numbers differed by about one percentage point.That amounted to about 12 home runs. Ramirez and Lee are about even in On Base Plus Slugging but, Manny gets on base at an elite rate of .388.
According to Ron Shandler : “the .300 hitters come from 86% contact rate and a 11% walk rate”. Lets take a look at the numbers he talks about.
- Manny Ramirez Contact Rate : 86.96
- Carlos Lee : Contact Rate : 89.95
- Manny Ramirez : BB/PA : 12.5%
- Carlos Lee : BB/PA : 7.6%
- Manny Ramirez : AVG .296
- Carlos Lee : AVG:303
Even though Manny Ramirez achieved both those thresholds, he was slightly off the .3oo batting average. Carlos Lee achieved the contact rate, but was below the walk rate and achieved the .300 BA.
According to Greener on the Other Side, Isolated Power identifies the true power hitters: “Isolated Power attempts to describe a hitter’s overall effectiveness by measuring his ability to generate extra base hits. The formula is rather simple compared to other sabermetrical statistics: Slugging % – Batting AVG.”
Its quite apparent that Manny’s power is not like it once was. He is still capable for 25-28 Homers, but he has not displayed the extra base effectiveness as he once could.
Now onto the luck category. The Batting average with balls in play for a hitter is dependent on the defense the hitter is facing. What is odd, is that Manny Ramirez BABIP shows he was the luckier hitter, but the predicted OPS says that Carlos Lee’s true numbers suggests that bad defense helped his numbers look better than they really were.
- Manny Ramirez : BABIP .312
- Carlos Lee : BABIP : .289
- Manny Ramirez OPS -PrOPS : 001 (Beltran -0.025)
- Carlos Lee : OPS- PrOPS : .021
The sabermetrics primer tell us that Runs created are : ” A statistic intended to quantify a player’s contribution to runs scored, as well as a team’s expected number of runs scored. ” Bill James would simply say that Lee was greater at creating runs for his team”:
There are also metrics to compare players contribution to his team. Greener on the Other Side says about the RC/27: “Runs created per 27 outs (RC27) estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score.”
Whereas, Bill James developed a stat that measures each player’s contribution to his team’s wins, or Win Shares
Most recently, VORP was in the news and Fire Joe Morgan tried to explain why John Heyman should be stopped.
Lastly, we take a look at the flyballs, and see that Manny is hitting more Balls on the Ground which may account for the dropoff in Home runs.